Apple’s iOS will become the new Mac OS X. Bold statement? Sure, but I have some reasons to make it and some data too. A few articles I found today also confirm what I have believed to be true for awhile now: Apple’s iOS is evolving in such a way that it will eventually replace what we now know as Mac OS X.
First and foremost, I don’t have a direct line into Steve Jobs’ office, but if I did, I might hear something like this, “I want you [the developers] to create an OS that is light, portable, extensible, and uses resources very efficiently.” And they have. That OS is iOS and it’s growing by leaps and bounds.
The first place we saw it was the iPhone. Then it showed up on the iPod Touch. Next, it arrived on the iPad. And now, we have it on the newest Apple TV. Want some data? Here’s where iOS is now (photos courtesy of theAppleBlog):
As you can see things are getting interesting. According to theAppleBlog:
A year ago, OS X accounted for 5.12 percent of the overall OS market, according to Net Applications. In the year since, OS X has gone has high as 5.33 percent, as low as 5.00 percent, and is now at 5.03 percent. In contrast, a year ago “iPhone OS” was at 0.35 percent, and since then, has seen both a name change to iOS and a near tripling of share at 1.18 percent.
And last month, iOS passed linux taking third in market share after OS X and Windows. Wow. An Operating System meant for mobile devices is overtaking it’s larger desktop cousins. But lets say there was no data to support this theory. Let’s say that our predictions are based solely on how it makes logical sense.
For one thing, iOS is less bulky than the larger OSs. This is a good thing because it takes up less resources and it preserves battery life. Did you happen to see what happened to the Apple TV when it got iOS? It shrunk. By a lot. And it did not lose any functionality (ok, sure, you can’t store stuff on it but that’s by choice not technology). Additionally, from a cost point of view it’s a lot cheaper to maintain one single OS for all devices than multiple OSs.
Browse the App store for a little while and what do you see? Games. Word processors. Utilities. Animated books. Maps. GPS. The list goes on. How big are these apps? Not that big. How much are they compared to traditional software? Not that much. In fact, if you wanted to buy iWork ’09 it would cost $79. The versions for the iPad set you back just $9.99 each or $30 total.
A while back I wrote an article that pondered when apps would be available for the Mac. But now I see that it should have been asked another way, “When will iOS be available for the Mac?”
Think also about Apple’s design. They like to make dramatic changes when they are ready to. We saw the iMac change multiple times. But where can they go next? More glass? More metal? How about being able to break free of the restrictions that the current Mac OS X has on your hardware design and take it to new places? For example, imagine the Mac Mini being as small as the current Apple TV. Imagine the iMac being super thin, super light, and it has a touch screen. Tons of possibilities.
But do I think this will happen all at one single Apple event? No. It will take time and it will happen gradually. First, we will see the introduction of the first iOS-based Mac. It will cause a disruption and the Internet will light up like a Christmas tree. The pundits will write article after article how Apple is leaving it’s flagship OS behind while the fan base will gnaw away at the announcement and pick it apart.
But Apple won’t care. They will march ahead with their vision of a portable, extensible and highly flexible iOS Mac. I can’t wait to see what’s ahead – the party is just beginning and it’s one I’m glad to be at.
So there are 3 reasons I believe iOS will eventually replace Mac OS X. Data. Design. Functionality. It will take awhile though as there are many things a portable iOS still can’t do compared to the larger OS X, but that will happen, just give it some time.
I do think an iOS-based desktop or laptop would be attractive to many mainstream consumers. It’s an interesting (and for many open-platform advocates, terrifying) idea – and it would have huge implications to the greater software market. As you mention, iOS apps sell for “not that much”, which is great for consumers and at face-value, bad for developers. On the other hand, unless jailbreaking starts to become mainstream, this could be offset by the fact that people pay for apps more often, and pirate less – which in aggregate might sustain a more mature variety of “serious” software (fingers crossed).
A shift to iOS could have a revolutionary effect on the software world, because in a marketplace like the App Store, huge incumbent providers aren’t generally given priority over smaller, more innovative startups. I guess Apple might choose to change their model a bit, favoring the incumbents but so far on iOS Apple have been content even for their own office and productivity products (iWork, Keynote) to compete with everyone else’s. They might give themselves a plug in the “Featured” or “Suggested” categories from time to time (especially for iBooks), but it’s not like there is a “mainstream” and “ghetto” section like you’d see in most traditional software retailers.
One potential problem is Apple’s insistence on stifling apps that compete with default “core functionality” apps like Safari and Mail. This kind of behavior is…boring, and won’t fly in the desktop market I think.
Andy. Thanks a lot for the comment!! It’s great for the discussion! I agree about the software market and the developers. In the long run, I also wonder if the less priced apps would sell more and developers would make more because of that?
Yeah, Apple is definitely going to have to change the way they handle apps and further more the entire OS. There is a risk here of making huge mistakes with vast reaching effects. They are in a position to either revolutionize the OS and hardware or make it “boring”